23rd June 2007
He Who Dares Wins, eventually
I have just returned from Canada - a country that never entertains Coalition Governments because none of the Federal Parties can stomach allying with the Nationalist Bloc Quebecois. Defining one’s politics by whom or what we are against is universally easier than defining ourselves by what we are for. Debates within Plaid( or Labour) on whom do we hate the most - Labour (Plaid) or the Tories - maybe an useful starting-point but unless our politics is to descend into a vapid tribalism, they should force us to express our differences in something a little more enlightening than prejudice.
Any political party faced with the possibility of coalition as a junior partner has to ask itself two questions: what are the intrinsic benefits - i.e. what will it achieve in of itself for the people of Wales from our perspective? And secondly what are the instrumental benefits - what does it pave the way for us to achieve in the future?
As regards the intrinsic benefits of the red-green alliance we cannot form a judgement yet as the programme of government is still being prepared in readiness for the July 6/7 party conventions. But I dare say it will compare very favourably to the Accord, containing a lot of new material and with much more detail in certain areas.
Inevitably, though, it is to the instrumental benefits that most party activists will turn - beyond the next four years, what will this mean for the future of the party and for Wales?
From a Plaid perspective (Labour’s checklist will be, by definition, very different - though there will be some overlap for progressives in both movements) a red-green government:
firstly, creates the conditions for the creation of a Welsh Parliament, a new financial settlement for Wales and a new social and political consensus on a bilingual future
secondly, gives Plaid Cymru credibility as a competent party of government
The second point should not be under-estimated. There are those in my party who argue that junior partners in Coalitions always suffer electoral damage, pointing to the experience of the Liberal Democrats in Wales during the first Assembly and in Scotland more recently. But there’s nothing inevitable about this - it depends on the context. And ‘grand coalitions’ - where the junior partner is actually the second-largest party - are by definition different.
It’s worth looking at the experience of the first German ‘Grand Coalition’ between 1966 and 1969 -now recreated in the Merkel-Muntefering Government. By the mid-60s the SPD had been in the political wilderness for a generation despite ditching its Marxism at the Bad Godesberg conference. Like Plaid Cymru, it had never achieved more than a third of the popular vote at a national election because of fears about its extremism and lack of government experience. From about 1961, a group around Herbert Wehner, started pushing the idea of a ‘grand coalition’ with the governing CDU/CSU as a way of breaking out of the ‘one-third ghetto’ and making the party ‘Koalitionsfaehig’ or electable in the eyes of the public - first as a coaliton partner and then eventually as a lead-parner in an SPD-led government.
Interestingly, the reason why the CDU accepted the idea was the intransigent attitude of the Liberal FDP. With the FDP excluded as potential partners, the CDU/CSU had to choose between keeping power or lapsing into opposition. The SPD could have led a new coalition with the FDP - but thought they were too right-wing on economic policy. An interesting parallel, I’m sure you will agree.
The Wehner strategy worked. In 1969 when the coalition ended, the SPD increased its share of the vote by 3.4% allowing it to form a Government with a now reformed FDP under Hans-Dietrich Genscher. This was the first SPD government in the history of the Germany since the rise of the Nazis. In an emotional speech to the Bundestag, Willi Brandt promised ‘to dare more democracy’. The dare paid off - at the next election in 1972, the SPD gained another 3.1% and remained in government for another decade untik the FDP finally swang right again to put Helmut Kohl in power in 1982.
The ‘historic compromise’ with the Christian Democrats allowed the SPD to become that ‘natural party of government’ in Germany for sixteen years, still the longest period of office in its history. Intrinsically, it helped the German people come to terms with their Nazi past, present a modern image of Germany to the world and improve relations with the Communist East Germany through Brandt’s Ostpolitik.
So in summary, marching in lock-step with the Labour Party for four years could eventually allow us to overtake them and give us the full mandate of leadership we currently lack. Or not as the case may be. Red-green is not simply a Trojan Horse for Plaid’s longer-term ambition as nothing in politics is inevitable because politics is dynamic. If Labour continued to adopt a progressive position and demonstrated increasing autonomy from London then an outcome more similar to the Austrian experience where a Grand Coalition continued for over two decades after the Second World war and again between 1986 and 1999 is likely.
My personal preference - not prejudice, I’ll have you know - is for a Plaid First Minister in 2011. Maybe then we can get a Welsh Michael Frayn to write a play abouth the first Welsh Parliament and the first Welsh leader since Glyndwr that refuses to pay fealty to anyone but the people of Wales. He who dares more democracy - wins. Eventually.
3 Responses to “He Who Dares Wins, eventually”
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Gary O says:
June 23rd, 2007 at 10:32 am
“Maybe then we can get a Welsh Michael Frayn to write a play about the first Welsh Parliament and the first Welsh leader since Glyndwr that refuses to pay fealty to anyone but the people of Wales.”
Adam - do keep up. We did that last year -
http://www.cardiffpassion.co.uk/showenemyforpeople.htm
Perhaps your invitation got lost in the fanmail? Or perhaps you were too busy working towards an actual Welsh parliament, while I was merely fantasising about it…
alanindyfed says:
June 23rd, 2007 at 7:58 pm
I have been watching the debates in the National Assembly. Somehow I cannot envisage Plaid having any accomodation with the Conservatives who very obviously represent the very opposite of what is inherent in Welsh traditional cultural values, based on egalitarian principles and communal co-operation and camaraderie. Despite Labour’s links with Westminster and the Union I reckon that Plaid members will opt for a Red/Green coalition and steadfastly work towards a referendum for a Welsh Parliament leading to full independence as a nation-state within Europe. This was Gwynfor’s vision for Cymru. It is also mine.
Alan in Dyfed
http://alanindyfed.blogspot.com
(INDEPENDENCE CYMRU)
Lenin Cymru says:
June 24th, 2007 at 2:15 pm
Good post Mr Price. I have been disappointed in recent weeks by your attempt to push a Plaid-Tory coalition, but it now seems you have seen sense and at least shifted away from that position. I do, however, find your German comparison curious. You will no doubt be aware that in general junior partners in German coalitions generally suffer from coalitions. Isn’t the only way for Plaid to succeed in becoming the largest party in 2011 to remain the largest opposition party and present itself as the only alternative governing party to Labour?