19th February 2009
Colofn Golwg
I must admit that I have changed my mind almost as often as the Prime Minister about the likely date of the next Westminster election. Due to Brown trailing in the polls, nearly everybody is now predicting an election in May next year, nearly the last possible time it could be held. But I’m now amongst a minority who predict an election a year earlier. The clearest indicator of this was last week’s announcement that the Budget will be held on the 22nd of April this year - the latest date for a Government (apart from newly elected government’s budget after an election) since 1945. The excuse given is the recession, and the need to give due consideration to any international suggestions arising from the G20 summit which takes place in London on the second of April. If I was to venture a guess, I think that the truth is that the Government are setting the stage ready for a snap election.: Obama standing shoulder to shoulder with Brown at Ten Downing Street and then a mega-budget with at least £20 billion worth of financial stimulus, mainly through short term tax cuts, on top of what we received in the PBR back in November.
The plan will be to make Brown seem like an Obama esque character with an international recovery plan whilst making Cameron seem like the opposer of this progressive alliance. Also in April of course, millions of pensioners will receive their up-rating to their state pension. And the fact that we’ll already be in the middle of the European election campaigns and therefore restricted by the Electoral Commission in terms of spending means that the Conservative party will be unable to spend over the next few months, thus restricting the boost they’d expect from their substantial funds.
Of course, this isn’t a risk free strategy. A snap election is often seen by the electorate as an admission that the economy will worsen. When Harold Wilson tried to benefit from his popularity by calling an unexpected election in 1970, he lost. Then, when Thatcher called an election a year earlier than needed in 1983, because of concerns about inflation rising the following year - the Tories lost 7% of their support which was higher than the polls predicted before the Election was called. However, it was enough for them to hold on to power. With the economy likely to worsen between now and June 2010, Brown has only one last throw of the dice: bridge the gap down to two or three per cent and then call a snap election, to possibly take place on the fourteenth of May. After all, Cameron needs to win by a clear 8 per cent margin to be sure of a majority. One thing is certain, however: Brown won’t make the same mistake as he made in October 2008. There won’t be any guessing about an election from Labour’s side until Brown begins his long awaited journey to the Palace.
Rhaid i mi gyfaddef mod i wedi newid fy meddwl ynglyn a dyddiad tebygol Etholiad San Steffan bron mor aml a’r Prif Weinidog. Mae’r arolygon cynddrwg i Brown ar hyn o bryd fel bod bron pawb nawr yn darogan etholiad ym mis Mai y flwyddyn nesaf, bron y dyddiad hwyraf y gallai fod. Ond dwi nawr ymhlith y lleiafrif sydd yn proffwydo etholiad blwyddyn yng nghynt. Yr awgrym cliriaf o hynny ydy’r cyhoeddiad yr wythnos ddiwethaf y cynhelir y Gyllideb ar Ebrill 22ain eleni- yr hwyraf ar gyfer llywodraeth (ac eithrio cyllidebau llywodraethau newydd wedi etholiad) ers 1945. Yr esgus ydy’r dirwasgiad a’r angen i roi ystyriaeth llawn i unrhyw argymhellion rhyngwladol yn deillio o uwch-gynhadledd y G20 yn Llundain ar Ebrill yr ail. Y gwir ydy, mentra i, yw bod y Llywodraeth yn dechrau saernio platfform perffaith ar gyfer galw etholiad sydyn: Obama yn sefyll ysgwydd-wrth-ysgwydd gyda Brown yn neg Stryd Downing ac yna mega-gyllideb gyda thua £20 biliwn (o leiaf) arall o ysbardun gyllidol, yn bennaf trwy doriadau treth tymor byr, ar ben yr hyn y cawson ni yn yr Adroddiad Cyn-Gyllideb ym mis Tachwedd.
Y cynllun fydd i bortreadu Brown fel cymeriad tebyg i Obama gyda cynllun adfer rhyngwadol a chornelu Cameron fel gwrthwynebydd y gynghrair flaengar yma. Ym mis Ebrill hefyd wrth gwrs y caiff miliynau o bensiynwyr eu huwch-raddiad pensiwn gwladwriaethol. Ac mae’r ffaith ein bod ni’n barod yng nghyfnod ymgyrch yr Etholiad Ewropeaidd o ran rheoliadau y Comisiwn Etholiadol yn golygu bod yna gyfyngiad ariannol ar yr hyn y caiff y Blaid Geidwadol wario dros y misoedd nesaf fydd yn atal unrhyw fantais y byddan nhw wedi disgwyl o’i coffrau sylweddol.
Nid bod yna ddim risg i’r strategaeth hon. Mae’r penderfyniad i fynd yn gynnar yn aml yn cael ei ddehongli gan yr etholwyr fel cyfaddefiad y bydd yr economi yn gwaethygu. Pan geisiodd Harold Wilson elwa ar frig ei boblogrwydd drwy alw etholiad annisgwyl ym 1970 fe gollodd. Pan alwyd etholiad blwyddyn yn gynnar gan Thatcher ym 1983 - oherwydd pryderon y byddai chwyddiant yn cynyddu y flwyddyn olynol - fe gollodd y Ceidwadwyr saith y cant mewn cefnogaeth o gymharu a’r arolygon cyn galw’r Etholiad. Ac eto mi oedd yn ddigon i ddal eu gafael ar rym. Gyda’r economi yn siwr o waethygu ymhellach rhwng nawr a Mehefin 2010 un tafliad olaf o’r dis sydd gan Brown: torri’r bwlch nol lawr i rhyw ddau neu dri y cant unwaith eto ac yna galw etholiad sydyn tair wythnos ar Fai 14eg efallai. Mae angen, wedi’r cwbl, i Cameron ennill o 8 y cant yn glir i fod yn sicr o fwyafrif. Un peth sy’n sicr: fydd Brown ddim yn gwneud yr un camgymeriad ac y gwnaeth yn Hydref 2007. Fydd yna ddim dyfalu ynghylch etholiad o ochr Llafur nes bydd Brown yn cychwyn ar ei fodurgad hir-ddisgwyliedig i’r Palas.
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